Plenty of Oil Around?
点击可查看中文版：《我们还有足够的石油资源吗--这要紧吗？》
Is There Still Plenty of Oil Around – And Does It Matter?
In early August, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency, Dr. Faith Birol, stated that we are running out of oil faster than most estimates and that the global supply would likely peak in about 10 years – not 20 or more years as most governments had been predicting. Within a month, however, Iran and energy producer BP both announced separate major new oil finds, igniting a fiery debate.
Who’s right, who’s wrong, and does it matter?
The answer depends upon who you ask. From most perspectives, it is extremely important to know the answer. From my perspective, however, it doesn’t matter. Whether we’ve reached peak oil or not, we need to continue down the path toward the electrification of the automobile.
Oil has an unfair advantage today over other sources of energy that I think will go away before we reach peak oil, whether that happens in 10 years, 20 years, or somewhere further off down the road. Oil is relatively cheap, over a hundred years of technology and infrastructure development have been built around it, and related externalities such as pollution and the impact of rogue states are difficult to put a price tag on.
One thing is certain. Today’s externalities will be tomorrow’s variable costs when carbon begins to be traded like a commodity. That’s when other sources of energy will be able to compete with oil on a level playing field and electric vehicles will start becoming a common sight on the world’s roads.
GM is working very hard on a portfolio of advanced technologies that range from improving the efficiency of today’s internal combustion engines to creating a completely emission-free, electrically powered driving experience. Several of GM’s advanced technologies will be on display and even demonstrated at World Expo 2010 Shanghai, including some exciting new electric vehicles … even if there is still plenty of oil around.
点击可查看中文版：《我们还有足够的石油资源吗--这要紧吗？》
节能节源，不然后果堪忧